There is disagreement

If you hear any government official saying that "there is no disagreement" that a stimulus is needed, they are either misinformed or lying.

CARPE DIEM: With All Due Respect Mr. President......

I'm not saying that I know if we need one or not, I'm just saying that there are plenty of economists out there that say we don't.

Dear Economist & "Stimulus" thoughts

First the amusing stuff : How an economist answers a "Dear Abby" style letter about a 1st date. Its actually a series and there are several very enjoyable posts in it.

Then the (to me) scary stuff:
The Blog of the Director of the Congressional Budget Office has posted its analysis of HR 1 American Recovery and Reinvestment Act of 2009. You know, the "stimulus" bill. Its not stimulus. Its wild government spending. Only 64% of the $816Billion would be back in the economy by October 2010. The rest is spread out until 2019.

Here's the thing that really bothers me about this. Its the Republican's fault. Its former President Bush's fault. You can't come to the American people and say "Holy crap! We've got a problem that we didn't see coming and we need to pour $750Billion into banks & wall street firms RIGHT NOW!" without future repurcussions. Once the "Party of Fiscal Responsibility and Small Government" sells that to the American people there's no reason to believe that the liberal "Tax & Spend" democrats are going to behave any better. This stimulus bill is basically the Democrats answer to the bailout bill.

So, how about a sensible solution. Rich Lowry writes a strong argument for suspending (or abolishing) the payroll tax (this idea is near the bottom of the article). It can be enacted IMMEDIATELY. It puts money in people's pockets IMMEDIATELY. It lowers labor costs to businesses IMMEDIATELY. I'm not saying that it should be the only thing in the stimulus plan, but it ABSOLUTELY SHOULD be in it.
Let's take that as the base and expand the idea to not only keep costs lower so businesses have options around employment, but lets incent hiring with this idea as well.
Tell the government how many employees you had on Jan 1, 2009 (call that number x). Tell the govt how many employees you have on Dec 31, 2009 (y) - so you've added "z" employees to you payrolls. For the next 5 years, as long as you have at least "y" employees, you get a 50% reduction in payroll taxes for "z" employees (not those specific employees, just the number of them).
What ideas do you have for a "stimulus"?

Geithner as Treasury Secretary?

Can someone please explain why a man who didn't pay Self Employment taxes from 2001 - 2004 and who owed the IRS over $34,000 until mid January 2009 (he conveniently paid just before his Senate Committee hearing):

a - isn't in jail

b - is still working as President of the Federal Reserve Bank of NY

c - was nominated by Obama for Secretary of the Treasury

d - is confirmed by the Senate and is now our Treasury Secretary.

"Do as I say, not as I do" should be his official e-mail signature.

Someone help me understand!

Weekend Highs & Lows

Highlite of the weekend was 24 hours alone with my wife. Her folks stayed at our house with the kids. We went out and stayed at their house.

Had lunch at The Fish Joint in Oceanside - absolutely awesome! I should have taken pictures to post. I never thought I'd say this, but Taka is not the best sushi in San Diego County.

Saw Last Chance Harvey on Friday night. Another reminder that "we never go to the movies" should always be rebutted by "we're not missing anything." This movie was abysmal. Emma Thompson and Dustin Hoffman should both be ashamed to have made this. If you've seen "Before Sunrise" or "Before Sunset" with Ethan Hawke and Julie Delpy then you've seen this movie, only the good version. If I have to post spoilers to keep you from seeing it I will (no, I won't, but still - its aweful, don't go).

J went to dinner with her folks and Brother on Sat night and I got the kids fed/ready for bed/in bed. They were delightful! They are amazing.

Took C to "practice soccer" on Sunday (T came too, but he was just happy to have a ball and open space to run it). It took a bit, but I think we got the "you can't use your hands in soccer" rule figured out. I'm going to have to explain "goalie" to her before her 1st practice or she'll be telling her coach "no, my daddy says that the 1st rule of soccer is you can't use your hands" and then she'll scold the goalie for picking the ball up. If you think that I watched my daughter running around kicking a soccer ball for 45 minutes and didn't think "college scholarship" then you don't know me very well.

I played hockey last night - 2-2 tie. 1 really weird bounce off the post off my back into the net goal and one very solid rebound goal for the bad guys. We gave up 26 shots again. At least I'm keeping busy.

Sea Kittens?

PETA's campaign against fishing

So if we rename them then we won't want to catch them or eat them. If PETA and the state of California's EPA team up they could probably get fishing completely outlawed.

The loud sound you hear is me banging my head against a wall!

hat tip to Kottke

I feel like writing...

...but I have no idea what I want to write about today.
Plans for the weekend:
Time alone with my wife thanks to the in-laws;
Practicing soccer with Charlotte (she's signed up for a league that starts at the end of March and she can't wait to get started);
Hockey on sunday evening/night;
Did I mention time alone with my wife!!!

Weekend Thoughts

*I have the best wife in the world! She took the kids on Saturday & sent me out for a "guy day." She loves me & that makes me the luckiest man in the world.

*I played over 12 hours of poker on Saturday. Played in a tournament at Pechanga - busted out very early and lost a "last longer" wager ($5) with my buddy that joined me. Had a really good Sushi lunch at The Fish Joint in Oceanside. The fish was fresh. There were standard rolls (rainbow / California) and they have a menu of specialty rolls. My buddy ordered the "Surf & Turf" roll and it was very very good. I'd recommend this place if you're ever in O-side looking for sushi. Played a 10+ hour session at Ocean's 11. Played 2/3NL. Total for the day : +$25. It was a lot of fun though and a nice break!
Then I got home (an hour later than I said I'd be home, but at 3am it wasn't like anyone was waiting up for me) and found the front door chained. Um, I was just an hour late.

*I have great kids! I know, I'm biased, but I do. They are fun & sweet & great! No great anecdotes today - they're just great.

*Turns out the Chargers are just a mediocre team and/or Pittsburgh is VERY good. Giving up a TD at the end of the 1st half to an allegedly anemic offense was a killer. I didn't see the 2nd half (was out playing with kids) but I saw the FG and then 10 minutes later driving in the car heard "14-10 Pittsburgh" and I had a pretty good idea that the Bolts were in big trouble. Yes Glen, you told me so and you'll get your $.

*I played hockey last night. It was my 1st game back in a league that I played in years ago. I've been playing goalie in the Thursday night "open sessions" since mid-November to get used to playing again and last Thursday was the 1st time I felt "right" - I was seeing things well and moving well and getting my pads down. Fortunately, that carried over to Sunday and I played really well last night (stat sheet says I stopped 25 of 26 shots). We lost 1-0 and I'm a little ticked about the 1 that I gave up (for hockey people, I cheated for a pass on a 2-on-1 and left half the net open - and the puck carrier noticed it and buried the only goal of the game). The team I'm playing with is a great group of guys/gals. We're going to be pretty good (much better than we were last night) and, more importantly, we're going to have a lot of fun!

Links Links Links

Just some blogs / articles that I think you'll find amusing/interesting/thought provoking:

1 - fun one 1st : Photoshop disasters blog - this appeared in Esquire Magazine. I have just enough experience with Photoshop to know that I would have been embarrased to have done this work and would have deleted the file altogether. That this made it into a well known and well established magazine is mind boggling.

2 - Arnold Kling is a prominent US Economist and he blogs. I love this post arguing against the next $800B "stimulus" package.

3 - Bryan Caplan is less well known but has a blog on the same host site as Kling. Here's a post that suggests a different method for the bailout. I'm not smart enough to know if its a good idea or not, but I think its at least interesting... and most certainly not going to happen. (for those on time budgets, the idea is for the Fed Gov't to promise to pay state sales taxes for us. So we go buy something, the register doesn't add the 8.75%, at the end of the day the State of CA sends a bill to Wash DC that says "we sold this much today, you owe us this much" and DC sends a check).


Enjoy!

Little Girls & Little Boys

Having 1 of each allows for some compare/contrast observations at home. A prime example is how they deal with "bumps" - when they fall down or bump into something.

Immediate Reaction : Score 1 for the boys here. T will cry if it hurts, but his response is generally in proportion to how big the owie is. If you pick him up, give him a kiss, and console for just a minute, he's usually pushing to get back down and go play. C, on the other hand, ANNOUNCES that she's fallen/bumped with a piercing scream, no matter what she fell on or how hard she bumped. The response is pretty much digital - its either on or off. There is no proportionality between the size of the owie and the response. It also takes much longer to console her, during which time she's screaming and crying.

Learning from the bump/fall/owie : Score 1 for the girls here. C does a pretty good job of learning from her bumps & bruises. I don't think I've seen her run into the same thing twice. If she has an accident at the playground she adjusts how she plays on a piece of equipment (thankfully, she doesn't just stop playing on that piece of equipment). She really seems to process "I did this and it hurt, perhaps I should try something different next time." T is a totally different story. He will often immediately start doing the same thing that got him hurt. I've seen him bump his head on the same thing 3 times in 15 minutes. At the park last week, he was pushing his truck in a dried up "creek" that had rocks in it. In order to push the truck, he's bent over at the waste, all his weight forward and both hands on the bed of the truck. When the tire of the truck hit a small pebble and the truck stopped, T went driving forward and got a nice bump & small scratch on his forehead. It took Mommy a few minutes to get him calmed down. Once he was ready to go though, he bent over and started pushing the truck in the creek again. Fortunately, Mommy is smart enough to learn for him, so she moved him to the sidewalk to push his truck. He took 8 steps forward and then made a sharp right turn into the grass ... where the truck stopped, he kept going and face planted his way to a cut lip.

They are fun to watch!

What I'm Reading / Have Read in last 3 months

One of the nice things about not playing nearly as much poker as I used to is that I'm doing more reading ... and none of it is poker-centric. So here are a few of things I've read or am reading and my thoughts on them:

Better : A Surgeon's Notes on Performance by Atul Gawande : An excellent book! Easy read (I think I read it in about a week), short and to the point. No matter what you do, there are some good pointers in here for how to improve. Maybe not specific steps or tactics, but there are strategies and ideas that if you think about can really help you get better at what you do. In addition, the stories/case studies he cites are really interesting. Everything from how to better control the spread of disease in hospitals to how to better save lives on the battle fields of Iraq.
I HIGHLY recommend it. (Thanks to Mark Roh for the pointer on this one).

Working on the Edge: Surviving In the World's Most Dangerous Profession: King Crab Fishing on Alaska's HighSeas by Spike Walker : A Good book. If you've seen "Deadliest Catch" on Discovery then the stories in the book will have limited shock value. The details that Walker provides are really well done. His descriptions of the Alaskan wildlife and terrain are outstanding and vivid. His description of how he felt during trips (cabin fever, seasickness, fear, adrenaline surges) are really well written and help put you on the boat. I recommend it if you like fishing/nature/hunting/wild stories. If not, skip this one.

The 48 Laws of Power by Robert Green : I'm kinda "meh" on this one. Its basically how to get what you want in the world broken down into 48 ways to get it. The author is VERY clear up front that he believes that power has nothing to do with right and wrong, its power and we all want it - this is how you get it. The book is true to that. Its too amoral for my taste, but there are certainly some takeaways in it. I'm not all the way through it, and may never be. I would recommend it for anyone in sales of any kind (including lawyers who have to sell their clients case to judges/juries).

Execution : The Discipline of Getting Things Done by Larry Bossidy, Ram Charan, and Charles Burck. I just started this book. So far it looks very good. I had planned to read it over my holiday vacation, but spent more time with my kids and family instead of reading. I'll be getting back to it tomorrow and trying to read it for 30 or so minutes at lunch every day. I'll give a more in depth review later, but if you're leading an organization, I think it will be of value to you.

Also, on the web I read Bill Simmons as often as he writes. He's on ESPN.com Page 2 writers. Its sports and culture - basically, he does what I wish I could do and he's very good at it.

Merry Christmas / Happy New Year / Happy Birthday to Me!

Christmas was awesome! "The Year of the Train!" for the kids (Thomas the Train track sets and a table just for them and more cars than you can shake a stick) and "The Year of the Tech" for Mommy & Daddy (digital camera, camcorder, new computer).

Christmas eve was 4pm Family service with GG & Papa & Great Grandad followed by getting the kids fed and in bed and the adults having Jamey's Gumbo -- mmmmmmmm!

We did "Santa stuff" at our house before going to the Holt's on Christmas day for a big breakfast (biscuits / gravy / meat / eggs) and a Duck Dinner! Just a wonderful day of family.

Friday (12/26) is the annual "Wilson/Holt/Foster" women's post-Christmas shopping adventure. I was relieved that Billy was healthy so I didn't have to fill in for post-holiday shopping again. I had a great time with J on Black Friday, but I know she has more fun with her Mom & I enjoy having the day with the kids.

Saturday 12/27 was Lamb's Players Festibal of Christmas in Coronado with the Holts. A great play and a wonderful dinner.

Sunday 12/28 Granny & Grandpa came down and we got to do Christmas all over again -- more trains, the aftorementioned camcorder, Jamey's magic Gumbo (yep, I was forced to eat it again).

Monday we started putting Christmas decorations away, well, actually Jamey spent all day doing it, I helped a little, and then had a "Highlander Reunion" - 6 of the guys that I played hockey with in college got together in Oceanside for dinner. It was enjoyable and "colorful" as only hockey players can be.

Tuesday the GG & Papa & Grandad watched the kids while J & I had a day to ourselves. We had breakfast at a place we'd been wanting to try, saw a movie (7 Pounds with Will Smith - I'd give it 3/4 of a thumbs up - great premise, mostly well executed, but 2 really hard to swallow "lack or reality" problems. No spoilers here, but e-mail me if you've seen it and want to know what bothers me or if you think you know what bothers me), had a cup of coffee and read for an hour and a half (in peace and quiet), and went to our favorite restuarant (Taka). A REALLY nice day.

Wednesday 12/31 we just had a nice family day. J went to bed about 10pm, I stayed up until 2am playing my new computer game. Yes, I still think I'm 19.

New Year's Day we took the kids to the park for a while and J ended up going to bed about 9pm saying "I'm not sure if I'm not feeling good or just totally exhausted." Turns out she wasn't feeling good and spent all Friday and Saturday in bed. Sunday she was up and feeling a little better, but took it easy.

Monday back to work and happy birthday to me! My wife & I had a quiet Pizza dinner in front of one of our favorite guilty pleasure TV shows (no, I'm not saying which one). We went to bed about 10.

2008 was a tough one for me professionally. Work was very bad from January until July. I was working insane hours and spent more nights than I care to admit sleeping in my office or at the hotel around the corner form work.
Fortunately in July I started my new job and its been great. In November I started playing hockey again and its great to be back at it. I'm hoping the momentum from the last few months of 2008 carries over and 2009 turns into a fantastic year.